Over in Impromptus, Jay writes:
Mehmet Oz owns ten homes. He is carpetbagging in Pennsylvania, pretending to be a regular Joe. He gets the name of the store wrong. He uses words such as “crudités” and “my ‘chi’ source.” These things are okay by me. (Certainly the homes, the screwing up of the store name, and the French word.) But if Oz were a Democrat — can you imagine what our nat-pops would say? Can you imagine the dunking?
Can you? I know you can. All is tribalism, I’m afraid.
I’d note that there’s at least a bit of evidence that maybe not everything is pure tribalism in Pennsylvania, as there are some signs that a significant chunk of the state’s Republicans are reluctantly and unenthusiastically backing Oz. They’re self-identified Republicans, so in the end, they’re likely to vote for the Republican candidate and not the Democrat one. But that doesn’t mean they’re willing to pretend that they believe Oz is a regular Joe, or that he’s anything close to their ideal senator.
In a poll of the state conducted for the AARP, Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward found that Oz is seen favorably by 53 percent and unfavorably by 38 percent . . . among Pennsylvania Republicans. Among Pennsylvanians in general, just 30 percent see Oz favorably, and 63 percent see him unfavorably.
By contrast, John Fetterman is seen favorably by 80 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats and just 11 percent of those Democrats see him unfavorably. Among Pennsylvanians in general, 46 percent see Oz favorably, and just 36 percent see him unfavorably.
Considering how just 53 percent of Pennsylvania Republicans say they approve of Oz, but 80 percent say they’ll vote for him, it is reasonable to surmise that about one quarter of Pennsylvania Republicans don’t like Oz but are voting for him anyway.
(This poll found Fetterman ahead of Oz, 50 percent to 44 percent, which makes it one of the better polls for Oz lately.)
The other day, Allahpundit offered what he called his “super-secret double extra spicy hot take on the Oz/Fetterman race, though: I think some MAGA fans . . . want Oz to lose.”
You probably won’t find many Trump fans outright rooting for Fetterman to win, but it’s easy to imagine a lot of populist Republicans not feeling particularly invested in the need to help Oz win this race. It’s already clear that outside Republican and right-leaning groups see Oz as a sinking ship and are choosing to focus their efforts elsewhere. Right now, Oz looks like a much bigger underdog than J. D. Vance or Herschel Walker or maybe even Blake Masters.
As Oprah’s favorite doctor and a longtime daytime-talk-show host, Oz jumped into the race with no natural constituency in the Republican Party. If he hadn’t been endorsed by Trump, most Trump voters probably never would have given him a second look. Some Pennsylvania Trump fans were pretty open about their belief that Trump had endorsed the wrong candidate.
Oz isn’t really a part of the Republican “establishment” either. He has little or no past association with conservative causes. He was critical of efforts to restrict abortion and heartbeat laws, lamented that the CDC “is NOT funded to study gun violence in this country. It’s time we treat shootings as a public health problem.” He also criticized fracking, and GLAAD praised him for “allowing the audience to hear probably the healthiest medical opinion of transgender identity ever broadcast.” Up until the moment he announced he was running for Senate as a Republican, most people would have assumed he was a Democrat.
And while most Republicans would undoubtedly prefer a Republican like Oz to a giant who votes like Bernie Sanders, if for no other reason than to ensure Republican control of the Senate . . . it’s also not unreasonable for Republicans of all stripes to wonder about the upside and long-term consequences of an Oz victory. If Oz manages to miraculously eke out a win, Republicans might just get more non-conservative, non-populist celebrities jumping into Senate races in future cycles.