The importance of the coming days and weeks for Venezuela, the United States, and the Western Hemisphere can hardly be overstated.
After declaring victory in a fraud-tainted and totally uncredible election, Venezuela’s autocratic leader, Nicolás Maduro, is undertaking steps to legitimize election results that are almost certainly falsified, launch a new campaign of political persecution against the democratic opposition, and consolidate dictatorial rule over the Venezuelan people for six more years.
After his cronies on the country’s national electoral commission released digital vote tallies purporting to show Maduro received 51 percent of the vote to opposition presidential candidate Edmundo González’s 44 percent (while providing no evidence to indicate where the numbers came from or how they are reconcilable with strong evidence — including paper vote tallies obtained by the opposition — pointing to a landslide opposition victory), Maduro’s regime moved swiftly to crack down on dissent.
Headlining an event today where he was laughably proclaimed the duly elected president by his election commissioners, Maduro said his government was working to counteract a coup plot orchestrated by foreign powers; just hours earlier, Venezuela’s prosecutor-general announced that María Corina Machado, the de facto opposition leader, had been placed under criminal investigation for alleged involvement in a conspiracy to alter voting results.
The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining whether Maduro abandons this charade and begins negotiations to turn over power to an opposition-led democratic government (who the data indicates were the overwhelming victors of Sunday’s election). If he does not, Venezuela will likely remain an authoritarian and internationally ostracized failed state for the better part of the next decade.
And the stakes are high not just for Venezuela: A significant contributor to the ongoing migration crisis facing the United States are the Venezuelan refugees fleeing the Maduro regime, who show up at the southern border in the hundreds of thousands every year. If the fraudulent election results are allowed to stand, and Maduro’s democratically illegitimate regime is handed six more years of power without much international resistance, the migration crisis emanating from Venezuela will likely only worsen.
The Biden administration and the State Department must work quickly to support Venezuela’s democratically elected opposition and negotiate Maduro’s exit. To that end, there are a few important steps that the U.S. should be undertaking right now.
Unequivocally denounce the sham election results.
The Biden administration’s public response thus far to the fraudulent election has been woefully inadequate. No statements have come from either President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris. A statement by Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the U.S. has “serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people” was materially insufficient and failed to provide the moral clarity needed to meet this moment. A full-throated denunciation by Biden and Harris of the Maduro regime’s behavior during this election, along with their explicit acknowledgement that the election was both fraudulent and democratically illegitimate, is necessary and must come immediately.
Hold off on immediately implementing harsh sanctions against Venezuela.
While some Republican leaders are demanding that the White House immediately reimplement suffocating economic sanctions on Venezuela (and rightfully observing that the Biden administration allowed itself to be tricked by Maduro into suspending nearly all sanctions on Venezuela’s state-run oil and gas industry in exchange for his empty promises of fair elections), it is not at all clear that would be the prudent move at this time. The political opposition and international mediators need to be given breathing room to negotiate with Maduro; snapped-back sanctions would provide an easy excuse for Maduro to double down on staying in power and accuse the opposition of colluding with the U.S. against the interests of the Venezuelan people. Sanctions should be put on hold until the outcome of any attempted negotiations with Maduro is known.
Work with the governments of Brazil and Colombia — the countries in the region with the most influence on Venezuela — to mediate between Maduro and the opposition and negotiate Maduro’s exit from power.
The two countries outside of the U.S. that can exercise the most political influence on Venezuela — and can put the most pressure on Maduro to negotiate his exit — are Colombia and Brazil. Both are led by leftist leaders with ideological sympathies for Maduro’s socialist Chavismo movement but even stronger desires to see political stability and democratically legitimate government return to their neighbor. Both Brazilian president Lula da Silva and Colombian president Gustavo Petro have yet to substantively weigh in on the fraudulent election and Maduro’s efforts to cling to power. The U.S. should encourage them to follow the example of their ideological ally, leftist Chilean president Gabriel Boric, in refusing to recognize any independently unverified election results. But the U.S. should also allow the Brazilian and Colombian governments to take the lead in mediation efforts — because while Maduro has demonstrated that he can withstand crippling sanctions and pressure from the U.S., most observers agree that his regime would stand little chance of survival if he were similarly cut off by Brazil and Colombia. Both Brazil and Colombia desire a democratic election and an end to chaos in Venezuela; the U.S. should give the two countries deference in negotiations and allow them to take those demands to Maduro.
Recognize that some form of amnesty will likely be required in order to usher Maduro out of office and ensure a peaceful transition of power to a democratic government.
Maduro is currently under federal indictment in the United States for narco-terrorism, corruption, and drug trafficking. His regime is also currently under investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. While there is no doubt that he deserves to face trial, the political reality is that there is absolutely no chance that he agrees to any negotiated arrangement to hand over power without a deal that gives him immunity from both U.S. and international authorities for the crimes he has committed in office. A deal that saw Maduro exiled somewhere where he could live under the protection of an ideologically friendly government unwilling to cooperate with outside authorities — whether that is Havana, Managua, or Moscow — could provide that required de facto amnesty.
The importance of the coming days and weeks for Venezuela, the United States, and the Western Hemisphere can hardly be overstated. It’s critical that the U.S. makes the right moves here and plays the right cards at the right times. At stake is whether an authoritarian despot leaves office, whether a devastating migrant crisis is abated, and whether 30 million Venezuelans can return to political and economic normalcy.