NATO is a bête noire of many Americans (as are alliances in general, as is the idea of collective security in the West). A headline earlier this month read, “Ramaswamy wants the US out of NATO.” (Article here.) Vivek Ramaswamy was standing behind Donald Trump as the latter gave his victory speech in New Hampshire. NATO survived a presidential term of Trump. Would it survive another? John Bolton is one who doubts it. (He was a national security adviser, as you recall, to Trump.)
Last month, Congress passed a law that would prevent a president from withdrawing from NATO unilaterally. He would need congressional approval. Congress was trying to Trump-proof America’s membership of NATO. But if the president were hostile to the alliance, there are ways of withdrawing informally and unofficially, so to speak. The U.S. president is in charge of our foreign policy.
On the campaign trail two days ago, Trump said, “We’re paying for NATO and we don’t get so much out of it.” I note this in my column today. Trump went on, “I hate to tell you this about NATO: If we ever needed their help — let’s say we were attacked — I don’t believe they’d be there. I don’t believe.”
As you know, Article 5 — which says that an attack on one is an attack on all — has been invoked only once: by our allies, when the United States was attacked on 9/11. The Afghan War, for 20 years, was a NATO war. I say in my column,
You would expect a former president to know this. And a future president to know it. But when it comes to that one man — Donald Trump — all expectations are set aside. It’s the strangest thing.
The chairman of the NATO Military Committee is Admiral Rob Bauer, a Dutchman. He has experience in various parts of the world. On January 17, he made a remarkable speech, which I will quote at length. Bauer said,
Together, we have to make sure that political will is matched with military capabilities. And with the rules-based international order being under immense pressure, the importance of this cannot be overstated.
The tectonic plates of power are shifting. And as a result: We face the most dangerous world in decades.
There are people who mock the very idea of a “rules-based international order.” When this order is gone, however, we will miss it — mockers included.
Bauer continued,
NATO has entered into a new era of collective defense. And together we are defending much more than the physical safety of our 1 billion people and 31, soon to be 32, nations: We are defending freedom and democracy.
Again, there are people who gag on such talk. Others know to take it very seriously.
Speaking about Ukraine, Bauer said,
This war has never been about any real security threat to Russia coming from either Ukraine or NATO. This war is about Russia fearing something much more powerful than any physical weapon on earth: democracy.
If people in Ukraine can have democratic rights, then people in Russia will soon crave them too. That is what this war is actually about. In 2024, a record-breaking 2 billion people on earth will cast their vote in a democratic election, and yet the concept of democracy needs to be defended more than ever.
The Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are doing this in a way we have never seen before. In the darkness of war, they are a beacon of light that shows the world what it means to fight for what you believe in.
One more paragraph, from Admiral Bauer:
Today is the 693rd day of what Russia thought would be a three-day war. Ukraine will have our support for every day that is to come. Because the outcome of this war will determine the fate of the world.
Bauer may be wrong about NATO support. That is, the United States may soon cut off Ukraine, and the support of the rest of NATO may be too little. NATO without America is much diminished. But about the importance of the war, Bauer may well be right.