As goes Erie, Pa., so goes the nation? That’s at least been the case in each of the last four presidential elections — and might be once more, come November.
As a political bellwether, Erie County rose to national relevance in 2016 after breaking its nearly three-decade-long Democratic hold by turning to Donald Trump, fueling the Republican outsider’s improbable surge to the White House.
Trump failed to earn the county’s support again in 2020 by a razor-thin margin — fewer than 1,500 votes. Now that President Biden has bowed out of the race, Trump finds himself locked in his third — and seemingly final — struggle for support in the small northwest-Pennsylvanian city.
The former president is expected to return to Erie on Sunday, just over a month after his running mate, J. D. Vance, visited a locally owned transportation warehouse there in late August. Most recently, Democratic vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz made sure to stop by in early September.
There’s a reason for the attention. Erie is not just a national telltale. Since 2008, Erie went for the eventual winner in 23 of 25 statewide elections. This included Democrats and Republicans alike. “Erie County, I think, is one of the epicenters of American politics,” said the political-science chairman of Erie’s own Mercyhurst University, Joseph Morris. (Full disclosure: Erie is my hometown.)
With a population of just over 90,000, the former industrial giant features the state’s only lakeshore, multiple major-league-affiliated sports teams, and four universities. However, its promise is overshadowed by the pervasive belief among residents that it is in sharp decline, typified by ubiquitous merchandise that defensively reads, “It’s okay to love Erie.”
Compared with national and statewide averages, Erie is whiter, poorer, and older, with fewer college graduates than elsewhere. In retrospect, Erie had all the markings of an electoral body ripe for precisely the type of change Trump personified in 2016, where nearly 20 percent of his voters there were registered Democrats or independents.
“Erie County is full of exactly the type of people to whom Donald Trump gave a voice — the children and grandchildren of union workers, without a college education, and who have not enjoyed the financial stability of their predecessors,” Morris explained.
The migration of steady blue-collar manufacturing jobs away from the city has left an indelible mark on its economic trajectory and public morale. These frustrations bubbled over in 2016, creating a perfect storm for Trump’s rhetoric to capture the hearts of many Erieites who felt abandoned by the sweeping tide of globalization. “Unlike most candidates for president, he didn’t just visit Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, then fly over the rest of the state,” Morris said. “He visited places like Erie County on multiple occasions, and, while he was there, spoke to people in a language that they understood.”
State polls in Pennsylvania continue to reflect a virtual tie between Trump and Kamala Harris. Erie could turn out to be the swing county in the swing state for the 2024 election cycle. Candidates ignore the northwestern corner of Pennsylvania at their peril — for Trump and Harris, it really is “okay to love Erie.”