Over in that other obscure Washington publication that I write for, I point out that the overall outlook for Senate Republicans is . . . pretty good, considering the gloomy outlook for a bunch of swing-state Republican challengers. Still, with the presidential race so close, a Republican Senate could do a lot to mitigate the damage of a Kamala Harris presidency — and the difference between a 50–50 Senate, with Tim Walz breaking the ties, and a 51–49 Republican majority is considerable.
Thirty-eight Republican senators are not up for reelection this year. Eleven more look like safe bets for reelection, or they are running for open seats in deep-red states such as Utah and Indiana. (No, Democrats, don’t get your hopes up about Colin Allred beating Ted Cruz in Texas. Please heed the lessons of the Beto-mania of 2018.)
This puts the floor for Republicans in the next Senate at 49 seats — knocking on the door of a majority.
In West Virginia, Democrat-turned-independent Joe Manchin III is retiring, and Republican Jim Justice, the current governor, is way ahead. This puts Republicans at 50 seats.
In Montana, Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is in real trouble, trailing or tying Republican challenger Tim Sheehy in every poll except one since March. It’s easy to shrug and say that the red-state Democrat Tester is always in trouble, but he never actually trailed in the polls in 2018, and led the polls intermittently against Denny Rehberg in 2012.
It is likely, then, but not guaranteed, that Republicans will have at least 51 Senate seats in January.
Trump’s fate in the presidential election is tied to his performance over the next 67 days. (Note that early voting starts well before November in most states; in North Carolina, county boards of elections begin mailing absentee ballots to eligible voters who submitted a request form on September 6. Eight days from now.) Trump is uncontrollable by anyone, including, apparently, himself. If you’re a Republican who wants to prevent the worst possible outcome, you may want to hedge your bets and focus on ensuring GOP candidates win everywhere they should down ballot.