Biden is partly responsible for the Ukraine stalemate, and he would love nothing more than to offload the consequences of his indecision onto Republicans.
Republicans don’t want to believe it, but they would benefit immeasurably from recognizing that they are a minority.
They’re a minority by party registration. As of last October, 48 million Americans identified as registered Democratic voters compared with 36 million registered Republicans. They’re a minority as measured by the illusory but nevertheless relevant “popular vote” for the presidency, which GOP candidates have won only twice since Ronald Reagan left office. And they’re a minority on a variety of issues — from abortion to entitlement reform and deficit spending, and so on.
One of the issues on which Republicans now find themselves on the wrong side of public opinion is support for Ukraine’s sovereignty against Russia’s invasion of territorial conquest. On that matter of the utmost geopolitical importance, too, the GOP is a minority.
A late-November Associated Press / NORC survey of Americans illustrates the GOP’s condition. Thirty-eight percent of respondents to that poll believe the U.S. has provided “the right amount” of support for Ukraine, while another 14 percent believe the U.S. has spent too little. Combined, support for the Ukrainian cause clocks in at 52 percent. Comparatively, 45 percent say the U.S. has spent too much — a figure that is buoyed by the 59 percent of Republicans who agree with that statement (though that figure has declined from the 69 percent of self-described Republicans who said the same in October).
The GOP’s precarious position is reflected in the about-face performed by newly minted speaker Mike Johnson. When he was just another member of the Republican conference, Johnson voted against virtually every appropriation for Ukraine’s defense. As speaker, however, he has evolved into a champion of Kyiv’s cause and a Cassandra warning of what Ukraine’s defeat at Russian hands would mean. “We can’t allow Vladimir Putin to march through Europe, and we understand the necessity of assisting there,” the speaker told a Florida audience last week, adding that he understands there needs to be a “sense of urgency” around Ukraine’s prospects.
This might be reflective of a genuine change of heart. But more likely, it is a product of Johnson’s recognition that the GOP is a minority party on an issue that requires deft political maneuvering. Yes, leveraging Ukraine aid to secure border-security funding from Democrats in control of the Senate and White House is savvy politics. But Republicans are just as obliged to avoid handing Biden a rationale that he can use to explain away his failure to sufficiently provide for Ukraine’s defense against one of the West’s foremost adversaries.
Biden’s beleaguered strategists are already toying with the talking point that Republican recalcitrance will “kneecap” Ukraine. If another aid package fails to pass, you can rest assured that ambitious Democrats will blame every Ukrainian battlefield setback on the GOP. That’s an outcome the GOP should seek to avoid not just because Ukraine’s cause is righteous and just, because American national security would be imperiled by Kyiv’s failure, and because the American public does not support throwing Ukraine to the wolves. That outcome would give Biden an out he does not deserve. His administration throttled the provision of lethal aid to Ukraine from the outset of Russia’s second invasion. Republicans shouldn’t hand Biden a narrative that allows him to evade blame for the present stalemate.
It’s not just me saying that Biden deserves at least some of the credit for the immobility of Ukrainian forces. “Our incremental approach to providing military assistance” has assured it, said retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General Douglas Lute. Throughout this conflict, Biden was persuaded to provide this weapons platform or that specific piece of ordnance to Ukraine only after prolonged periods of self-doubt and embarrassing public displays of whinging over how Russia might respond.
A GOP that recognized its minority status would commit itself to making compelling arguments designed to convince skeptics and doubters. It would rely less on its own sense of its inevitable ascension to political dominance to do the talking (and thinking) for it. Speaker Johnson’s posture is reflective of that welcome and long-overdue strategic thinking. Biden would love nothing more than to offload the consequences of his own apprehension onto Republicans. The GOP should not oblige him.