You could say that the past two months have been unkind to prospective presidential candidate Ron DeSantis. Or you could say, after removing the varnish, that they may have been the worst two months for any national figure in recent political history. The Florida governor went from being tied or just ahead of Donald Trump to trailing him in every (even marginally credible) poll by 20 points or more.
That changed over the weekend. The Florida legislature wrapped up its 60-day session on Friday after compiling a breathtaking record of conservative accomplishment. Tort reform. School choice. Tax relief. A pushback on ESG from the pension system and CRT from the classroom. Bans on Chinese land purchases and “reassignment” surgery for minors. Serious efforts to lower drug prices without crimping research incentives, and to impose the death penalty more frequently for heinous crimes. All that and more.
Some will say, too much more. The only problem with a legislative supermajority is that, late in session, the reality dawns that leadership can pass almost anything. In the category of possible overreach, veteran Tallahassee watchers note the following:
- Disney. Is it prudent for the governor to pick a protracted legal and political fight with the state’s largest employer just now? For the company, threats to Disney World — which attracts 60 million guests a year to its 47-square-mile park — are existential.
- The heartbeat abortion law. Civic comity would seem to demand a ban closer to the 15-week bogey.
- Sprinkles. Florida’s homebrewed version of the congressional earmark is especially well-funded in boom times. (The state budget came in at $117 billion, up 7.4 percent from the year prior.) The cost-conscious taxpayer is best advised to avert his eyes.
This quibbling may turn out to be no more than quiddity. All in, the legislative session was one for the ages and it gives DeSantis that rare and immensely valuable political credential: He has walked the walk. If the states are indeed the laboratory of democracy, Florida has just become Palo Alto at the dawn of the silicon age.
When will DeSantis announce? That date is under D-Day-level wraps – yesterday, a senior Republican official asked me – but putting two and two together (and possibly getting five) I’m saying it will be the week of May 15.
For the DeSantis campaign, there are green shoots aplenty. Among the most salient:
- Jeff Roe, one of the architects of the Youngkin miracle in Virginia, has come aboard the DeSantis campaign team.
- Jason Osborne, majority leader of the New Hampshire state house, endorsed DeSantis this past week. (That showed a bit of chest hair. Osborne’s governor, Chris Sununu, is still pondering a presidential run of his own; and Osborne’s previous favorite, Trump, has moved out to a 30-point lead in state polls.)
- And the betting here is that DeSantis will be allowed to transfer his state campaign funds — $85 million-plus – to his national campaign.
Those of us who thought Trump would get a walkover may have to think again.