The Conventional Wisdom on Trump Is Wrong

The conventional wisdom on Wednesday’s GOP presidential debate is calcifying into three main points: a) no non-Trump candidate stood out from the crowd in such a way as to become the unambiguous non-Trump alternative, b) Trump made a strategically smart move by avoiding this “undercard” debate, and c) if Trump had been there, he would have dominated his opponents.

I certainly agree with the first point, as I wrote last night. As to the third point, I’m not so sure. The rush to postulate that Donald Trump would have been a colossus on stage among mere mortals is a reflection of a political dynamic that once manifestly existed — there’s no question about that — but might not necessarily persist. Here are a few examples of Trump-supporting politicians and influencers broadcasting the conventional wisdom.

But are we so sure about that?

During the 2015-2016 primary debates, Trump was a whirling dervish of energy, charisma, and spontaneity. People watched because the show — and it was indeed a reality-TV show come to life — was genuinely entertaining. No one knew just what was about to happen next. Trump was more nimble, brash, and outrageous than any of his Republican opponents. Love him or hate him, Trump dominated those primary debates.

But that was eight long years ago. Trump was still in his late sixties. He’s now 77 years old. And it shows.

After the debate last night, I watched Tucker Carlson’s sit-down interview with Trump. Trump looked old, tired, and frail. He spoke softly. He rambled and meandered through stories, anecdotes, and nicknames for which — if you weren’t deeply engaged in right-wing cable-news chatter — you’d need a guidebook in order to understand the references. He didn’t effectively defend his record or prosecute any arguments. He told the same old stories, he had the same old lines — but the humor is gone. He just talked . . . for 45 minutes.

Here’s a representative example that is being circulating on Twitter by Trump-friendly influencers.

Forget about what he’s saying for a minute — does this sound or look like the same man who took the world by storm in 2015?

It’s worth remembering that the last time we actually got to see Trump debate — three years ago in September 2020 — he was shouty, off-putting, and visibly agitated in his first debate with Joe Biden. There was no humor, no happy-warrior winking at the audience that night. A month later, in October, Trump, obviously having taken on board the universally negative feedback from his performance in the first debate, was subdued, quiet, and almost boring.

They canceled the other debate.

Why are we so sure that the old magic would come roaring back should Trump step onto a debate stage this fall? Why are we so sure that Trump could — today, in 2023, at 77 years old — keep his energy level up for a two-hour-long political slugfest?

So, yes, Trump made the right strategic call to avoid debating last night. Had he debated, he might have just been exposed as the worst possible thing in his eyes: old, tired, and yesterday’s drama.

Editor’s note: This post has been amended since its original publication.