The 100,000 or so who turned out for an early May Trump rally in the New Jersey beach town of Wildwood displayed all the passion for their candidate that has long been associated with the presumptive Republican presidential nominee’s movement. Apparently, however, those voters reserve their passion exclusively for Donald Trump.
On Tuesday, the Garden State held its primary elections, and the former president’s preferred candidate for U.S. Senate lost. Real estate developer Curtis Bashaw defeated Mendham Borough mayor Christine Serrano Glassner by more than 20,000 of the nearly 300,000 votes cast in that race. Bashaw will face off against Democratic congressman Andy Kim in November, and Kim is no doubt the favorite in that race. But the disgraced incumbent, Senator Robert Menendez, does not seem inclined to go away quietly.
All indications are that Menendez is serious in his effort to retain his seat in the upper chamber of Congress as an independent candidate, even though he is currently on trial for 16 federal corruption counts. Menendez’s prospects look bleak. A March survey conducted by Monmouth University pollsters found that New Jersey residents have had their fill of Menendez and his antics. Seventy-five percent of respondents said they believe Menendez is probably guilty of the graft and influence-peddling charges he faces. Just 16 percent of New Jersey residents view their longtime senator favorably. Nearly two-thirds said Menendez should resign.
One hypothetical poll of a potential three-way race between Menendez and two unnamed generic candidates found the incumbent earning just 10 percent of the vote. The Democrat in this scenario earns 49 percent to the Republican’s 42 percent. It would be foolish for Menendez to pursue a Senate bid under these circumstances merely to raise funds that can be diverted to pay for his mounting legal debts. But criminals — as federal prosecutors allege Menendez to be — are not known for their wisdom and prudence.
And yet, Menendez has reason to believe the party machine that put him in the Senate has some life left in it. After all, his son, Congressman Rob Menendez, managed to beat back a primary challenge by Hoboken mayor Ravi Bhalla in the district that is home to Union City — the Menendezes’ base of operations — despite being out-raised and outspent. That is evidence to suspect that Senator Menendez could outperform his polls in November, threatening to split the Democratic vote in the process.
Meanwhile, Garden State Republicans failed to nominate a candidate that Democrats could count on to self-immolate. Bashaw, a Cape May–based developer who is openly gay and has never run for public office, carefully avoided the pitfalls in the primaries that might have rendered his candidacy unpalatable to the New Jersey general electorate in the fall. He has managed to avoid articulating his view on the morality or legality of abortion but calls himself “pro-choice.” He said Joe Biden was legitimately elected in 2020. He has been attacked by Trump as a “Christie person,” which is unlikely to cost him GOP votes in the fall but may signal to Trump’s many detractors in New Jersey that he maintains a sufficient distance from Trump to preserve his independence.
Granted, for Republicans to outright win a Senate seat in New Jersey for the first time in over a half century, all of 2024’s balls would have to bounce the GOP’s way. But given the number of variables in this race, it’s certainly one to watch.