That’s my hunch anyway.
Senators Jon Tester (D., Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) are both running for their fourth terms. Tester is behind in the polls while Brown is ahead (but below 50). The conventional wisdom reflects those polls. But I think the senators are likely to share the same fate in the elections.
Both Democrats have been shrewd about maintaining moderate images in their states while compiling mostly party-line voting records. But they have also had favorable national environments for each of their Senate runs. The year 2006, when they were both first elected to the Senate, was an epically bad year for Republicans. They got reelected at the same time Barack Obama did. And then they got to run again in 2018, another great year for Democrats (though it was masked a bit by the geography of the Senate races as a whole).
Trump is going to win both states handily this year, and while Brown and Tester ought to run ahead of Harris, my guess is they won’t run far enough ahead. Combine that with the near-certain election of a Republican in West Virginia and the Democrats’ weak chances against incumbent Republicans, and that yields a prediction of 52 Republican Senate seats.