Kevin Drum thinks America may be about to attack Iran. I put less stock in Joseph Cirincione than Drum, but maybe he’s right. One thing people might keep in mind is that it may be very important Iran thinks such a thing is possible, even probable, even if it’s really not in the cards. Right now Iran is scoffing at our pressure because they don’t think we can back it up. Suggesting otherwise is probably a good idea.
No one likes the idea of the government using disinformation, but sometimes it’s necessary in order to send the signals you want to send. You can’t tell Iran it’s go-time while reassuring Americans it’s not. Personally, I have no idea if a strike against Iran is imminent or even in the cards. But chatter in these sorts of cases is even less likely to be reliable evidence, and rightly so.