Here’s how an Allen guy sees the race at the moment. “After the macaca controversy, the campaign was in a defensive mode, probably for too long.” After the incident, Allen’s support cratered among African-Americans, to 70-something% for Webb to 5% for Allen. This hurt because Allen had gotten 20% of the African-American vote in the past. He still has solid support among Republicans, conservatives, and the Christian Right. Part of the problem, however, “is that Virginia is no longer the solid red state it once was.” Also, there are members of the military who are suffering from Iraq-fatigue, and Bush’s numbers have been down. Webb has been climbing based on “the president’s unfavorables and people opposed to the war and people who don’t know him.” But the Naval Academy controversy “has put him on the defensive,” and he had trouble explaining it on “Meet the Press” and in Fairfax yesterday. There are numbers that indicate Webb’s favorables are down and his numbers in Northern Virginia have dipped. His strongest support comes from “women and suburban women,” so the Naval Academy attack was obviously aimed at that constituency. “Webb was getting a free ride…Instead of us being on defense, it’s time for him to be held accountable, and there’ll be more.” Allen “has a narrow lead that’s going to become a significant lead.” For what it’s worth…