This week, Politico ran an article indicating that supporters of legal abortion are divided on strategy in 2024. Specifically, there are internal debates about how to allocate resources among various pro-abortion candidates and the approximately twelve states where abortion will appear on the ballot in 2024. In particular, there appear to be differences of opinion as to whether direct-democracy elections in conservative states with strong pro-life laws in place merit a substantial financial investment.
The Politico article includes a chart showing states where each of seven pro-abortion groups are either committed to funding a campaign or are considering funding a campaign. Six of the seven groups have committed to fund a campaign in Arizona, presumably because Arizona is a potential swing state in the 2024 presidential election. None of the groups are investing in deep-blue states, including Maryland and New York, likely because they are confident of victory there.
Only two groups have committed to fund campaigns in Missouri, Montana, and Colorado, and only one has committed to fund a campaign in Nebraska. Interestingly, none are considering investing in either South Dakota or Arkansas. Some pro-abortion groups have indicated that their reason for not investing in Arkansas is that they are unhappy that the ballot proposition would legalize abortion only up to 20 weeks’ gestation. However, a more likely reason is that they simply do not think they can win in a solidly conservative state.
Since the Dobbs decision, it is not a secret that pro-lifers have struggled in statewide direct-democracy campaigns. However, in this election cycle, abortion will appear on the ballot in some conservative states where the political terrain is more favorable to pro-lifers. There will also be a campaign in Florida, where, because of the state constitution, supporters of legal abortion will have to obtain 60 percent of the vote to win. Winning these campaigns will doubtless require substantial investments in both time and money from pro-lifers. However, the fact that supporters of legal abortion are reluctant to invest in certain states is powerful evidence that pro-lifers can prevail.