The Red Sea is a vital pathway for global commerce. As CNN noted recently, “around 10% to 15% of global trade — and 30% of container trade — passes through the waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea.”
That’s why it was good news that, as I wrote the other day, the U.S. announced that it was forming a coalition to restore safe passage for shipping through the Red Sea.
A few days later, the Danish company Maersk, one of the largest shipping companies in the world, announced that it would be resuming operations in the Red Sea following the formation of this coalition, known as Operation Prosperity Guardian.
However, today Reuters reports (my emphasis added):
U.S. President Joe Biden hoped to present a firm international response to Yemen’s Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping by launching a new maritime force, but a week after its launch many allies don’t want to be associated with it, publicly, or at all.
Two of America’s European allies who were listed as contributors to Operation Prosperity Guardian — Italy and Spain — issued statements appearing to distance themselves from the maritime force.
The Pentagon says the force is a defensive coalition of more than 20 nations to ensure billions of dollars’ worth of commerce can flow freely through a vital shipping chokepoint in Red Sea waters off Yemen.
But nearly half of those countries have so far not come forward to acknowledge their contributions or allowed the U.S. to do so. Those contributions can range from dispatching warships to merely sending a staff officer.
The reluctance of some U.S. allies to link themselves to the effort partly reflects the fissures created by the conflict in Gaza, which has seen Biden maintain firm support for Israel even as international criticism rises over its offensive, which Gaza’s health ministry says has killed more than 21,000 Palestinians.
“European governments are very worried that part of their potential electorate will turn against them,” said David Hernandez, a professor of international relations at the Complutense University of Madrid, noting that the European public is increasingly critical of Israel and wary of being drawn into a conflict.
Translation: Those governments are worried about the extent of the “pro-Palestinian” protests seen in their cities. That message will be well received by those organizing the protests — and by those who benefit from them.
That said, the situation might not be quite as bad as the opening paragraphs of the report suggest:
In reality, many European and Gulf countries already participate in one of several U.S.-led military groups in the Middle East, including the 39-nation Combined Maritime Forces (CMF).
The EU’s Atalanta operation already cooperates in a “reciprocal relationship” with CMF, according to a spokesperson for the group.
That means that some countries not formally joining the Red Sea maritime task force could still coordinate patrols with the U.S. Navy.
For example, while Italy – a member of Atalanta – has not said it will join Operation Prosperity Guardian, an Italian government source told Reuters that the U.S.-led coalition is satisfied with Italy’s contribution.
The source added that the decision to send a naval frigate as part of existing operations was a way to speed the deployment and did not require a new parliamentary authorization.
Nevertheless, the reluctance of some nations to participate in a new U.S.-led operation to secure something as basic as the security of an international sea lane is both evidence of the waning of Pax Americana and a development that may provide further ammunition to those in the U.S. who would like to see less American engagement abroad. That’s not good.
Meanwhile, from Bloomberg today:
Half of the container-ship fleet that regularly transits the Red Sea and Suez Canal is avoiding the route now because of the threat of attacks, according to new industry data.
The tally compiled by Flexport Inc. shows 299 vessels with a combined capacity to carry 4.3 million 20-foot containers have either changed course or plan to. That’s about double the number from a week ago and equates to about 18% of global capacity.
The diverted journeys around Africa can take as much as 25% longer than using the Suez Canal shortcut between Asia and Europe, according to Flexport. Those trips are more costly and may lead to higher prices for consumers on everything from sneakers to food to oil if the longer sailings persist.
And that’s not good either.