Shortly after the invasion of Ukraine began, the U.S. State Department urged Americans to leave Russia and not travel to the country. Now, the U.S. is issuing another warning about “the potential for harassment and the singling out of U.S. citizens for detention by Russian government security officials” and urging Americans to “exercise increased caution due to the risk of wrongful detentions.” This makes it sound like the U.S. government thinks the Russian government is looking for some more bargaining chips, and hoping for a repeat of the Brittney Griner–for–Viktor Bout trade.
When the Griner–Bout trade was announced, some of us contended it was a terrible move that rewarded Russian misbehavior and demonstrated that the U.S. couldn’t keep any Russian national, no matter how abominable his crimes, behind bars. The Biden administration insisted upon taking a victory lap. Back in December, I wrote that the trade was “an epic concession to a hostile state that is likely to try to use the same strong-arm tactics again in the future.”
Look where we are now.