Last week’s political headache for House leadership is this week’s security blanket for House speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio), who is very likely to remain in power despite conservative frustration with his handling of the government-spending bill during the lame-duck session.
One reason for that: reports that House whip Steve Scalise may or may not have spoken to a white-supremacist group twelve years ago. That means that Scalise is less likely to jump into the race, even if the conservative rebels block Boehner from winning on the first ballot.
“I honestly thought a month ago that if you did have a second ballot, maybe Scalise is going throw his operation into it, but I think he’s been wounded sufficiently that that would not be a realistic thing,” one Republican congressman told National Review Online Monday evening.
Republicans have stood by Scalise, and even a black Democratic colleague told reporters that Scalise “does not have a racist bone in his body.” But that didn’t stop President Obama’s team from going on offense.
“Who they choose to serve in their leadership says a lot about who they are, what their values are, and what the priorities of the conference should be,” White House press secretary Josh Earnest told reporters during Monday’s press briefing.
Scalise is one of the few Republicans who might have won over conservative critics of Boehner and united a majority of Republicans, but he’s not going to execute such a coup this week, of all weeks. With incoming House Ways and Means committee chairman Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) and other prominent conservatives backing Boehner, conservative backbenchers don’t have a strong contender.
“The guy who can seize that gavel, given Scalise’s weakness and given the heavyweights who have decided to sit this out, is Kevin McCarthy,” the Republican lawmaker says. For conservatives who dislike Boehner, that’s a cure worse than the disease.
“I think [McCarthy] would have done the same thing [as Boehner] over the last two years, with one exception: that the Gang of Eight bill would be law today,” the lawmaker explains. “I believe he would have put Gang of Eight on the floor with Democratic votes and passed it. I’m a big Boehner critic, but he did kill that, and that’s probably more than Kevin would have done.”
That sentiment makes it harder for the ten Republicans who have stated their opposition to Boehner to convince 19 more colleagues to join them. The rebels need at least 29 votes to block Boehner from winning on the first ballot.