Diana Falzone of Mediaite reports, “2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. plans to announce he will run as an independent on October 9 in Pennsylvania.”
If this pans out, I will remind you that someone argued back in June that this move made sense for Kennedy:
RFK Jr. is attracting support from a decent number of people who aren’t Democrats, registered or otherwise. In the last national Quinnipiac poll, 40 percent of Republicans, 31 percent of independents, and 25 percent of Democrats felt favorably about him. (Perhaps he is running in the wrong primary.) In that survey, he was the presidential choice of just 17 percent of all Democrats, but 25 percent of self-identified conservative or moderate Democrats. Focus groups of swing voters who voted for Biden last time reveal some curiosity about Kennedy. . . .
A solid majority of Democrats are not interested in buying what Kennedy is selling, and the Democratic Party establishment will pull out all the stops to marginalize him. (The New York Times laments that Kennedy hangs around with Elon Musk and “pushes right-wing ideas.”) Would Kennedy prefer to win two early primaries that will be dismissed as fake victories, or would he rather win millions of votes in November, and perhaps play spoiler?
When I wrote that, a lot of people, including quite a few self-identified RFK Jr. fans, contended it was crazy talk. And if there’s anything this crowd knows how to recognize, it’s crazy talk.
Well, in the Democratic primary, RFK Jr. is about where he was when he started in the polls, between 10 and 20 percent. That’s not a terrible showing against an incumbent, but it’s not really going to turn many heads. After a few 40-point wins, the media will lose interest in Kennedy’s bid within the Democratic Party. One big problem for Kennedy is that the people who are most interested in what he’s selling don’t often vote in Democratic primaries.
But as an independent, Kennedy is a much more intriguing wild card and could play a much bigger role in the 2024 race. For starters, as an independent, Kennedy may well compete for votes on the right; Kennedy’s earned praise from Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, Steve Bannon, Mike Flynn, and Charlie Kirk. The kind of voter who likes Trump for his railing against corruption and claiming that vast conspiracies are harming Americans, and his general opposition to anything perceived as “the establishment,” may well find Kennedy an intriguing option.
Finally . . . if you’re No Labels, and you’re looking at a likely November 2024 lineup of soon-to-be-82-year-old Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, Trump as the Republican nominee, Kennedy as an independent nominee . . . how do you feel about the odds of a Joe Manchin–Larry Hogan ticket, or of any two centrists, in that mix?