John, not to belabor it, but my point was that Iowa in 2004 mattered. Explaining why Kerry won there as you did in this post doesn’t make the case that it didn’t matter. If Edwards had won Iowa instead of Kerry, the race would have looked a lot different.
Iowa will matter this time too. How much exactly no one can say, but it will matter. For instance: if Rudy were to finish, say, second in Iowa (not inconceivable if pro-lifers splinter, if Rudy stays as strong as this new CBS poll suggests he is, and if he competes vigorously there), then he’d get a very nice boost into New Hampshire and if he were to win New Hampshire, it would be an enormous step toward the nomination.