A well-informed e-mailer:
Ok, I’d first drop Drake to the second tier.
B/c of her district (a Columbus-area seat that split 50/50 between Bush and Kerry), the scandals her state GOP has endured and the headwind blowing down from atop a disastrous top of ticket, you’ve got to include Pryce in that first tier. For similar reasons (almost an evenly split 50/50 Bush-Kerry district in Cincy), you’ve gotta put Chabot up there, too.
The demographic terrain is better in IN than in these two OH seats, but the climate is also unfave there for GOP. And Sodrel, unlike Chocola or Hostettler, faces an ex-member w/ significant name id in a state where GOP is not in favor.
The open upstate NY seat is also a front-tier opportunity for Dems. This is a marginal GOP district w/ a solid Dem running, much like OH, w/ help from the top of ticket. Most Republicans think they’ll lose this one before Reynolds.
As for IA 01, this is a seat that went for Clinton twice, Gore and Kerry. Tough for a Republican to win a Dem-leaning, open seat in a place like eastern IA this year.