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Like the GOP internals you relayed, the sense around here is that Corker had momentum until late last week when the media attention on the race mostly concerned the “Call Me Harold” commercial. The Corker people I know in Chattanooga were really upset at the ad because they thought they had refocused the race on Corker and away from the slick-talking Ford, only to have the focus shift back to Ford.
My view is that this race has mostly been all about Ford and whether middle Tennessee (both geographically and politically) sees him as the moderate, well spoken personality or the candidate from the crooked political family in Memphis. While Corker would obviously like the later image to carry the day, he also needs to project himself among these voters as the competent (no-risk) heir to the Baker/Alexander/Thompson tradition. If Corker can’t swing this independent group, he’s going to have to have one hell of a base turn out, and, as you know, he wasn’t the Republican “base” candidate in the primary. One built-in advantage for Ford is that the governor’s race is not a race at all. Do Republicans really have a good reason to go out and vote for Corker with no one or anything else of significance on the ballot?
I thought Corker had this race won (and would still give him the edge), but I’m not so sure now.