The battle for control of the House is close, and polling doesn’t give us a clear sense of either party having an advantage.
Polling in U.S. House races exists!
It’s tougher to poll a congressional race — other than the handful that encompass an entire state — because of the district lines, and phone area codes not aligning with those district lines. Pollsters have to go through their lists of phone numbers and check to make sure the resident is in the House district they’re polling, which makes the process more time-consuming and expensive.
But if you look hard, you can find some poll results, often done on behalf of campaigns or interest groups.
RMG research polled likely voters in three House districts with potentially vulnerable Republican incumbents on behalf of U.S. Term Limits.
In Iowa’s third congressional district, RMG found Democratic challenger Lanon Baccam leading incumbent Republican Zach Nunn, 42 percent to 39 percent. (Unsurprisingly, after respondents were told that Nunn signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge and supports term limits but that Baccam has not signed the pledge, Nunn leads, 47 percent to 36 percent.) This is Iowa’s least-Republican-leaning district, and Nunn won last cycle by the skin of his teeth. But Cook Political Report rates this race “lean Republican.”
Similarly, in New York 19th congressional district, RMG finds Democrat Josh Riley narrowly ahead of incumbent Republican Marc Molinaro, 42 percent to 39 percent. Once again, when respondents were told that Molinaro signed the term-limits pledge and Riley had not, the Republican leaped ahead, 45 percent to 30 percent. New York’s 19th district is rated even in the Cook Partisan Voting Index, and Molinaro won in 2022 by 1.5 percent. Cook Political Report rates this race a “toss up.”
Finally, in California’s 41st congressional district, Democratic challenger Will Rollins leads incumbent Republican Ken Calvert, 41 percent to 35 percent, according to RMG. Once again, when respondents are told of the two candidates’ differing stances on term limits, the Republican leaps ahead, 48 percent to 32 percent. In 2022, Calvert beat Rollins, 52 percent to 47 percent; Cook Political Report rates this race a “toss up” as well.
We can argue about whether the issue of term limits really is the magic bullet in tight races that this survey suggests. But it seems clear that these are tight races, that the Republican incumbents do not have this locked up by any means, but that voter preferences are loose enough that the right contrast can put the GOP incumbents comfortably ahead.
In Pennsylvania’s first district — basically Bucks County — an internal poll for Republican Brian Fitzpatrick finds him ahead of Democratic challenger Ashley Ehasz, 54 percent to 40 percent. That’s right about what we would expect. Every cycle, Democrats convince themselves they’ve got a real shot at knocking off Fitzpatrick in this classically suburban district. And every cycle, Fitzpatrick finishes with anywhere from 51 to 57 percent of the vote.
In Alaska’s lone House district, “Republicans released the first poll of the updated race for the state’s lone House seat. Rep. Mary Peltola (D-at-large) and 2022 candidate Nick Begich (R) were in a statistical tie, as Peltola led Begich within the margin of error, 38 percent to 35 percent. With leaners, Peltola and Begich were at 46 percent and 45 percent, respectively.” Note that “the memo did not share a ranked-choice ballot test, but the race is seen as a head-to-head since [Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy] Dahlstrom dropped” out of the race.
Maryland’s sixth congressional district in the western panhandle of the state is an open-seat race in slightly Democrat territory, scoring a D+2 in the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Gonzales Research and Media Services found that “if the election were held today, 41 percent of CD 6 voters would back Republican Neil Parrott, 39 percent would vote for Democrat April Delaney, and 20 percent are undecided.”
We would all love it if polling could give us a clearer sense of who’s going to win control of the House after the election. But so far, the vulnerable Republican incumbents appear to be in a close race, the Alaska Democratic incumbent is in a close race, and the open seat in western Maryland looks like a close race. The only incumbent who looks like a safe bet lately is Pennsylvania’s Fitzpatrick, the amiable centrist who sits atop a throne of skulls of everyone who tried to defeat him before.
To sum up, the battle for control of the House is close, and polling doesn’t give us a clear sense of either party having an advantage.