Prof. Dale Carpenter, a Federalist Society member, law professor, gay-marriage advocate (and gay man), is dour about the prospects for victory (from his point of view) in the Prop 8 trial. He says Justice John Paul Stevens’s retirement makes an unlikely scenario even more unlikely, going from bad to worse.
I would add: The strategy laid out by Olson and Boeis, which is exciting the base, seems to me (granted, I’m not a legal scholar) strikingly unlikely to win Justice Anthony Kennedy’s vote. They are attempting to use this trial to prove that religious views on sex and marriage are, consituutionally speaking, bigotry and animus. Being Catholic, or being Southern Baptist, in their view, makes you a marriage bigot.
Gay-marriage advocates are cheering wildly. I dunno, I don’t really think this is the way to Justice Kennedy’s heart.
Are the legal eagles, Olson and Boies, going to end up looking like legal beagles?