If Charlie Crist were to double-back on repeated avowals and run as an independent, he would tip the scales in Marco Rubio’s favor, by siphoning off more Democratic votes than Republican ones. According to PPP, in a hypothetical three-way Senate race, Rubio leads with 34 percent of the vote, Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek trail with 27 percent and 25 percent respectively.
In this scenario Crist gets 35 percent of the independent vote, 32 percent of the Democratic vote, and only 18 percent of the Republican vote.
Indeed, Crist is more popular with Democrats than Republicans:
Crist’s overall approval rating now is a 35/51 spread. He’s most popular with Democrats at a 45% approval rating followed by independents at 29% and Republicans at 28%.
But with Crist’s huge deficit among Republican voters, an independent run is still Crist’s best remaining path to a Senate victory:
But even that’s a long shot- among all Florida voters 24% want Crist as Governor a year from now, 15% want him in the Senate, and 47% would like to see him out of elected office. Crist finds himself now in a very difficult position.
Meanwhile the decline of Crist presents an opportunity to Democrats. Republicans are certainly still favored to keep this seat, but Marco Rubio as the nominee gives Dems a much better chance than Crist and this may yet be one of the most competitive races in the country this fall.