A conservative pollster writes:
I still think it is uphill but not impossible for Toomey. Some things going for him–
1) It doesn’t seem that Specter’s massive ad spending so far has particularly helped hiim; this would seem to indicate that opinions about Specter are pretty well set. Hence, the question is whether enough people will know anything good about Toomey to vote for him.
2) At the end of the year, only about 20% of primary voters had any impression at all of both candidates; of that group, Toomey was ahead by double digits. Now 3 months later, with fairly limited Toomey advertising, 40% have an impression of both candidates & Toomey is still leading in this group by double digits. So the question here is again whether Toomey’s ads can get that 40% up to 70 or 80% by primary day.
3) Toomey still has the great majority of his ad money left. If he spends a million & a half or so in the next 6 weeks in the proper places, it might work out.
4) Personally, though, I still think Specter will win. He will greatly outspend Toomey, the party establishment will put him on all the slate cards & endorsement tabloids going out to primary voters, and I fully expect some big smear campaign against Toomey at the end. That’s typical Specter.
5) I’d be disappointed if Toomey didn’t get say 42% & would be pleasantly surprised if he got 45-46%.
6) Interestingly, Rendell’s negatives are rising to such a degree that he might actually be vulnerable in 06, and if Toomey comes out of this primary not all scarred up, he could be a strong candidate for gov if he wants to run.