Trevor Tombe, an economics professor at the University of Calgary, has written a piece for the Hub about the gap in economic performance between the U.S. and Canada. America’s much-discussed growth slowdown is very real, but the picture north of the border is even worse.
“Compared to the same period last year, per capita GDP is now down 2.2 percent. Compared to 2022, it’s down 3.6 percent,” Tombe writes. “As RBC analysts correctly noted, this is a ‘recession-like’ performance.”
“A longer historical perspective reveals a striking reality: the gap between the Canadian and American economies has now reached its widest point in nearly a century,” he continues. “The U.S. is on track to produce nearly 50 percent more per person than Canada will.”
In a post on X promoting the story, Tombe included a map of U.S. states and Canadian provinces by GDP per capita. The data are measured in U.S. dollars, at purchasing-power parity.
It shows that Ontario, home of Canada’s business capital of Toronto, would be the fifth-poorest U.S. state if it joined the union today. Ontario’s GDP per capita is $59,700. Only four states — Alabama ($58,800), Arkansas ($57,400), West Virginia ($56,200), and Mississippi ($49,800) — have lower GDPs per capita.
Quebec, with a GDP per capita of $54,400, exceeding only Mississippi’s, would be the second-poorest U.S. state.
If Nova Scotia ($45,200), New Brunswick ($47,100), or Prince Edward Island ($48,200) joined the U.S., they would each be the poorest U.S. state.
There are high-performing Canadian provinces. Alberta, with its oil-and-gas resources, has a GDP per capita of $82,200, same as Minnesota and only slightly behind Texas. Saskatchewan, too, is doing well at $80,300.
But the U.S. in general is pulling away from Canada, just as it is pulling away from Europe, in economic growth.