An e-mail:
I hate to say it but Obama might be better for Doha and trade liberalization than McCain. The reason has zero to do with their stated positions. If Obama was pushing a trade deal, some Democrats would be inclined to cross Labor and vote with the Republicans in the same formula that had Clinton get trade deals through. With a Republican they all stick with the mob. (Of course, this assumes, as I do, that Obama is lying about protectionism and will just put in onerous enviro and labor clauses that weaken the “freeness” of free trade agreements but, if passed, are a net benefit to trade over all).
It’s an interesting argument, but my view is that the politics of trade have changed since the 1990s. It is easier to run as a protectionist these days, and an increasing number of Democrats have won their seats running on explicitly protectionist platforms. I think the rhetoric of “outsourcing” and the rise of China had something to do with it. But if Obama has a hidden passion for free trade that he’s waiting to get into office to unveil, it’s possible he could push through some deals.