The results from the Quinnipiac/CBS/New York Times polls of likely voters:
FLORIDA: Obama 49 – Romney 46, compared to Obama 51 – 45 percent August 1
OHIO: Obama 50 – Romney 44, unchanged from August 1
WISCONSIN: Obama 49 – Romney 47, compared to Obama 51 – 45 August 8
Partisan breakdown in Florida was 34 percent Democrat and 28 percent Republican (exit polls from 2008 showed Florida voters were 37 percent Democrat and 34 percent Republican). In Ohio, the breakdown was 34 percent Republican and 26 percent Republican (Ohio 2008 exit polls had 39 percent of voters being Democrat and 31 percent Republican), and in Wisconsin, 32 percent Democrat and 28 percent Republican (the voters were 39 percent Democrat and 33 percent Republican in 2008, per exit polls). So in Florida, this poll gave Democrats an 6 point advantage, higher than the 3 point advantage they had in 2008. The gap in Ohio is the same as in 2008: a 8-point Democratic advantage. And in Wisconsin, the pollsters assumed a 4-point Democratic advantage, 2 points below the Democrats’ 2008 advantage.
Of course, this has been repeated ad nauseam, but it’s highly, highly unlikely that Democrats will retain the voter advantages they had in 2008, due to the the drop of Democratic enthusiasm since then and the surge of GOP enthusiasm. I’m not seeing any real possibility that in Florida, the Democratic advantage will grow by 3 points, nor does it seem likely that in Ohio, there will remain an 8-point Democratic advantage.