Whoever finishes second in Iowa will be quite dinged up, and not just by Donald Trump.
That’s an over-statement since Haley has overtaken DeSantis in the polling even in Iowa, and he’s much more likely to have to drop out before she does (in fact, might have to drop out on Tuesday if he does indeed finish third). But the Des Moines Register poll that Audrey mentioned isn’t terribly encouraging for either of these candidates who have been kicking the hell out of each other.
The favorable ratings for both of them have gone down. Haley is barely above water, at 48 favorable and 46 unfavorable. That’s down from 53-26 in August, a huge drop. DeSantis is still popular, at 58-36, but that’s down from 66-29 in December and 69-26 in October.
Haley is ahead in the ballot test, but she’s strongest among independents and Democrats, which is not a formula for winning Iowa, or the nomination. Meanwhile, DeSantis is at 16 percent in the poll, a dreadful result.
Usually, when two candidates go to war and hurt each other in a multi-candidate field, it creates an opening for someone else to “come up the middle.” But that happens when the warring candidates are at the top of the field; in this case, of course, both Haley and DeSantis are running badly behind the frontrunner. Donald Trump doesn’t need to come up the middle, because he’s already up and already occupies the middle, winning among every demographic group in Iowa.
In short, the fight in Iowa between Haley and DeSantis has been for second and assures whoever gets second will be quite dinged up, not by just by Donald Trump, but by the third-place finisher.
So deep-seated is this dynamic that the DeSantis campaign apparently thinks it’s going to carry through South Carolina. Here’s an AP headline from the other day: “DeSantis plans to go from Iowa to South Carolina, instead of New Hampshire, as he targets Haley.”
All this said, it’s understandable that DeSantis and Haley have ended up at war. The DeSantis strategy was that he’d establish his strength among MAGA-ish voters and the non-Trump voters would have no choice but to come to him after the other candidates fell away. The emergence of a candidate, namely Haley, who gained a strong hold on those non-Trump voters has been a strategic debacle.
As for Haley, second place in Iowa could, in theory, help in New Hampshire and if DeSantis has to quit, it gives her a one-on-one fight with Trump that, maybe, just maybe, changes the dynamic of the race.
So the sources of the battle aren’t irrational, but it’s been enervating and harmful to both candidates as Trump, except in New Hampshire, continues to romp.
Maybe Iowa can still surprise us tomorrow, but it’s looking like Trump’s race, with the DeSantis–Haley contention only having made that a little more likely.