To lighten things up, I thought I’d try something new this playoff season and publish predictions every Friday ahead of the weekend’s games. This could set me up for embarrassment, because there is remarkable parity between the 2nd and 7th seeded teams in each conference so I have lower than usual confidence in my picks. To me it says something that the Bills didn’t clinch the playoffs until the final day of the season, and yet they ended up as the second seed in the AFC because of a narrow win against the Dolphins, who then dropped to the 6th seed. Another unpredictable factor is the officiating, which has been as bad as ever this year, leading me to believe that at least one game will be decided by a crucial call that objective observers believe was blown.
So, here are my picks, without considering the spread – feel free to tell me why I’m wrong in comments.
Browns @ Texans
C.J. Stroud has had an impressive rookie year, but Myles Garrett and the Cleveland defense will be too much for him to handle. Joe Flacco will make enough plays to get the job done. Winner: Browns.
Dolphins @ Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes can’t do everything on his own and he has no reliable receivers beyond Travis Kelce, who is less dominant this year. That said, while the Dolphins have been explosive at times, they will come into this game banged up on both sides of the ball, playing a night game with a wind chill of negative 20. Winner: Chiefs.
Steelers @ Bills
Josh Allen is streaky, but right now, he’s hot. The Steelers are only in the playoffs because of a win in the final week against a Ravens team that was resting its key starters. Winner: Bills.
Eagles @ Bucs
The Jalen Hurts finger injury will affect him, especially with A.J. Brown banged up. But the Bucs played in the worst division in football and even then, only snagged a playoff slot on the last day of the season in a pathetic 9-0 win against the worst team in the league, the Panthers. Winner: Eagles.
Rams @ Lions
Matt Stafford will be fired up against his old team, but I give the edge to the Lions due to their killer offensive line and because I suspect they will be playing with a chip on their shoulders during the postseason after the botched ineligible receiver call against the Cowboys. Winner: Lions.
Packers @ Cowboys
Dallas has looked unstoppable at times this year and on other occasions, not so much. Would not be shocked to see Green Bay pull off the upset. But I think it’s most likely that Micah Parsons will rattle Jordan Love and the Cowboys will exploit the below average Packers defense. Winner: Cowboys.