Chinese military preparations and Xi’s public statements should spur immediate U.S. action to bolster readiness.
A U.S. admiral is warning that Washington must prepare for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan that could come before the end of this year. During a discussion of naval capabilities at the Atlantic Council yesterday, Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of naval operations, said that Chinese Communist Party general secretary Xi Jinping’s actions, and the Chinese military’s track record, speak for themselves and should spur immediate U.S. action to bolster our military readiness.
“What we’ve seen over the past 20 years is that they have delivered on every promise they’ve made earlier than they said they were going to deliver on it,” he said, responding to a question about what the ongoing Party National Congress means for the Cross Strait military situation.
“So when we talk about the 2027 window,” he continued, referring to a warning by Admiral Phil Davidson, former U.S. Indo-Pacific commander, about an attack that could come that year, “in my mind that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window.”
“I can’t rule that out. I don’t mean to be alarmist by saying that,” he added. “We just can’t wish that away.”
Like other U.S. officials, Gilday can only offer a guess, based on Chinese preparations and what Xi has said publicly.
Gilday’s warning followed a comment by Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week that the timeline according to which Beijing wants to absorb Taiwan has become “much faster” under Xi.
Neither of the two officials suggested that their remarks were based on any new, specific intelligence, and both seemed to refer to the Chinese leader’s repeated vows to seize Taiwan — and his refusal to rule out using force to do so. During the opening session of the Party Congress this week, Xi reiterated that stance.
Gilday used his warning to make his case for ensuring the readiness of his force. “I just don’t think that we can skimp on” training and readiness, he said.
Taiwanese foreign minister Joseph Wu has said that it’s difficult to know when Beijing might decide to attack. “It’s going to be very hard to guess when that will happen, whether it is 2023, 2025, 2027, or 2035,” he recently told reporters. “The government here in Taiwan does not have that kind of luxury to guess” but must be prepared.