I can’t speak to the merits of the Nate Silver Election 2024 model, except that it confirms my priors so it must be right. On The Editors podcast, I often ask my colleagues what they think the chances of Trump winning are. I’ve been at 52 percent for some time — in other words: a close race but one where Trump is favored. The Silver model favors Trump, too. Its 65.7 percent chance of Trump winning the Electoral College sounds high to me, but the basic idea that you’d bet on Trump right now is correct in my view.