I think McCain won (but all my judgments are being poisoned by the Luntz focus group as we speak). Republicans tend to disagree with him on immigration, the tax pledge, and interrogation, but he scored against Romney on immigration, had a fine answer on the tax pledge, and put his interrogation position in the context of his national security/military experience, which was his real strength tonight. His answers on Iraq and Iran were passionate and deeply informed. It also helped create the impression that he had the upper-hand tonight that Giuliani and Huckabee gave him props three times. Combine all this with the fact that he was relaxed, feisty, and fluid, and it was a strong night for him.
Rudy was impressive as always. My criticism–like that member of the Luntz group–is that he cited New York so much and in such an over-the-top way (everything he did was “impossible”) that he risked seeming a backwards-looking braggart. He also didn’t seem particularly comfortable with the family question–understandably. But Rudy is almost always very strong in these forums, and the New York overkill can be easily adjusted for next time.
Romney was fine, but he seemed wobbly on Iraq, both in terms of his substantive knowledge of it and his commitment to the war. His defense of himself against McCain’s “apparently” criticism was that he wants to give Petraeus “the benefit of the doubt”–the benefit of the doubt that he might actually say the surge isn’t working? McCain took a subtle shot at him also on his Iran answer after Romney talked at length about getting Democrats and allies on board, when McCain emphasized that ultimately the response would be up to America. There wasn’t anything technically wrong with Romney’s foreign policy answers, but he didn’t feel as resolute or commanding as McCain. But Romney was still fluid and I don’t think it was a terrible night for him by any means.
The night’s big loser: Fred Thompson.