I wrote a column about her today for Politico:
When Lake narrowly won the Republican gubernatorial nomination two months ago, it seemed the Arizona GOP had consigned itself to electoral oblivion. Lake is a “Stop the Steal” die-hard and political novice who, one assumed (certainly, I did), would suffer the fate of another Trump-endorsed true believer, the Pennsylvania GOP gubernatorial nominee, Doug Mastriano, who consistently trails his opponent by about 10 points.
To the contrary, Lake has been a surprise. At the same time, she’s a reminder of the oldest of conventional political adages — candidate quality matters.
You can peddle conspiracy theories about the 2020 election and sink beneath the waves if you are a state senator with no especially notable political skills; or you can peddle conspiracy theories about the 2020 election and achieve liftoff if you are an exceptionally poised former news anchor.
Of course, Mastriano is the former and Lake is the latter, and that’s one key to their different trajectories.
A Lake win is by no means a lock. She’s ahead of Democrat Katie Hobbs by just 1.6 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average. Still, given the general political environment and how it is tilting further toward the Republicans, she’s clearly in a strong position.
Win or lose, there’s no doubt that a major political talent has emerged. Lake is the latest in a line of female champions of a grass-roots conservative populism that runs from Phyllis Schlafly to Sarah Palin to Marjorie Taylor Greene, spanning the 1950s to today.