The Morning Jolt, May 2, asking whether Nevada really should be perceived as a swing state this cycle:
You have to go back to October to find a Nevada poll with Biden ahead in the surveys included in the RealClearPolitics writeup, and it’s the same story over at FiveThirtyEight. I can understand Republicans being wary about their chances in Nevada; they’ve seen decent polling numbers prove illusory in the face of labor-union get-out-the-vote efforts in many past cycles. But Biden won the state by just 33,596 votes in 2020, 50 percent to 47.6 percent.
This morning, the New York Times poll has Biden at 38 percent, both among registered voters and likely voters. Donald Trump is at 50 percent among registered voters, and 51 percent among likely voters.
A double-digit Trump lead doesn’t look all that swing-y, now, does it?
Also, I notice the New York Times didn’t bother to poll the state of North Carolina, which I continue to doubt will be a genuinely close swing state this year.