Derb, sorry in turn that it has taken me a while to respond. Been out of touch (stomach virus–but I’ll spare everyone the details). Let me say up front that I love the vigor with which you write. You are compulsively readable in any circumstance.
But I digress: So how are you going to kill all these jihadis that you want so dead when you leave Iraq? With some of your super-duper covert raids? My problem with your cold-blooded realism on Iraq is that it is not the least bit realistic. On Iraq you are a pessimistic fantast. The pessimism is fine. It may even be proven right in the end–no one can know at this point. It’s the little fantasies–a pullout right after the election, a fighting retreat, all the rest of your muddle–that are silly.
The problem you have is that you don’t care what happens in Iraq, but you want all jihadis dead. But what happens in Iraq will impact how many jihadis end up dead. A pro-jihadi government of the sort that has a greater chance of coming about if we leave precipitously will not kill those jihadis you want dead. In fact, it will provide a haven for them. Are you going to re-invade Iraq to go kill them all? Then leave again? Maybe we can put Iraq on the six-month invasion plan.
The obvious play here is to try to create a government that will do some of this killing for us. You don’t even want to try. By the way, the language about killing all jihadis I picked up from you. We are not going to kill all jihadis in Iraq. Trying to stay until we do that would be a fantasy. What we can do, perhaps, is help foster a decent government that can stand up to them.
Finally, as for the reason I supported the war. The case for the Iraq war was over-determined. But I never supported it on the basis of the “flypaper” theory. I haven’t been an advocate of that theory since the war either. It is obviously a rationalization after the fact. But I believed before the war and believe now that a decent Iraqi government (and no, not a member of the Anglo-sphere) will help change the geo-political balance of the region away from jihadi-supporting governments. We have seen signs of those sort of changes. Relatedly, Iraq is a test of strength between radical Islam (Zarqawi) and a more benign Islam (Sistani). It’s important that the forces of Sistani prevail.
You’re right that there are jihadis all over the place. We are facing a global insurgency that we have to confront with every tool at our disposal, depending on circumstances–military, law enforcement, political, etc. It’s going to take a long time and require patience and some subtly. Unfortunately, it can’t be won by just going and wrecking places. That would obviously be much easier.
Anyway, there’s my latest. Thanks for the exchange as always. But I’m still confused on a big point. Do you favor an immediate pull-out from Iraq? A few weeks ago you wrote, “Withdrawal now would be a disaster.” Is that still your position?