I keep hearing speculation — modestly gleeful from liberals and the mainstream press and modestly gloomy from conservatives — that the Christian right is splintering politically. There certainly seems ample evidence to back this up right now, though things could re-consolidate once there’s a nominee. I don’t know what the reality is. But here’s what I’m curious about. For years conservatives have argued that it’s bad for blacks to be so politically monolithic. They get taken for granted by the Democratic Party, they get ignored by Republicans, they’re treated as an undifferentiated stereotype by the media, etc. I’ve always been very sympathetic to this argument and still am.
The question I have is, does this analysis not also apply to Christian conservatives? And if not, why not? One narrow answer is that what we’re talking about today isn’t quite the same thing. Christian conservatives are splintering over the conservative nominee in the conservative party. It will be a long time before they start throwing any of their weight behind a Democrat. Fair enough. But any ideological diaspora starts with small steps. Before you can cross the wilderness, you must first walk across your front yard, or some other bumper sticker trusim. And besides, the gloominess and giddiness over this splintering talk seems driven by a larger fear/hope.
Another response might be that while it would be good for Christian conservatives to broaden their influence, it wouldn’t be good for the Republican Party. Okay, that’s also a fair concern — if you’re top priority is protecting the GOP. Mine isn’t.
I’ve long believed that conservatism — and America — would be better off if there were more conservatives (or economic libertarians) in the Democratic Party. You’re not going to move the center of gravity of American politics to the right unless you get the Democrats move to the right (a point I’ve made a lot over the years. See here for example). Ramesh has made this argument as well (I may have gotten it from him) and he’s also made similar arguments regarding the benefits of having pro-lifers in both parties. If you’re a pro-lifer first, how could you deny that it would be better for the cause if Democrats were trying to win pro-life votes too?
Anyway, I’m not saying that the splintering of religious right is necessarily a good thing for them or for conservatives (I’m not even sure it’s happening). I’m merely curious as to why liberals are so convinced it’s good news for them and why conservatives seem so gloomy about the proposition. Ramesh, Kate, Kathryn, Rich? Thoughts?
Update: Here’s a good, short, answer from a reader:
Perhaps it’s because they are united by a chosen ideology rather than
the accident of skin color. Why should skin color dictate political
belief or voting patterns? Ideology ought to.