Writing in the Corner, Brent Buterbaugh makes the case that Major League Baseball’s decision in 2022 to expand the number of playoff teams from ten to twelve is good for baseball. Brent is correct because, as he notes, with more playoff teams comes more randomness and an increased chance of the unexpected happening. And such randomness and unpredictability make the game all the more exhilarating:
That’s the beautiful thing about baseball: Anything can happen at any time. The most unlikely hitters have the chance to play the hero, and the most unlikely teams have the chance to stun the favorites at any time. And thanks to the new playoff format, there are more opportunities for that to happen.
To add to Brent’s defense: This new playoff format not only intensifies the competitive fervor in the playoffs, but for the regular season as well.
The incentive structure of the league should encourage teams to compete. However, when a team faces slim playoff odds, it often prioritizes the future over the present by trading key players for emerging talent that can contribute down the line. Losing games can even be to its benefit, as teams with poorer records are rewarded top draft picks the following year. Expanding the number of playoff teams allows more teams to compete for the playoffs and discourages teams from giving up on their season because of a poor start, leading to regular-season games that are more competitive.
At this season’s trade deadline — the cutoff date for which teams are allowed to trade players — the Seattle Mariners had a 14.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, per Fangraphs. Perceiving the playoffs as out of reach, the team traded away one of its best relief pitchers, Paul Sewald, to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
In the end, the Seattle Mariners fell short of the playoffs by just one game, a frustrating finish that surely brought regret to the team’s front office and heartache to the fans in Seattle. In contrast, the Arizona Diamondbacks — who had a 39.5 percent playoff probability when they acquired Sewald — narrowly squeaked into the last playoff spot and proceeded to upset two division winners and the reigning National League champions, sending the team to the World Series. Sewald has emerged as the most trusted Arizona relief pitcher, assuming the role as closer, and pitching eight scoreless innings in the playoffs while allowing only three hits.
Had the playoffs not expanded, not only would Arizona have missed the playoffs, but it’s also quite possible it would have followed Seattle’s playbook and waved the white flag on the season. Instead, the additional playoff spot provided Arizona with an incentive to compete — a risky gamble that ultimately paved the way for an extraordinary Cinderella story, ushering the team to the World Series.
The expanded-playoff format brings a more competitive drive to regular-season games. It offers teams disheartened by a mediocre start or plagued by player injuries a reason to be resilient and remain competitive. Critics of the new playoff format argue it diminishes the importance of regular-season games. But when nearly half of the league is more focused on winning the following season than on the present one, doesn’t that bring more harm to the value of regular-season games?