It’s the vibes. It’s the polls. It’s the early-voting margins in the states.
Back on August 9, I made four election-season predictions for the fall campaign. At the time that I made them, I put all four in the “bold but plausible” bucket. Just a week out from the polls’ closing on November 5, let’s see how I’m doing.
Prediction #1: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will debate only once — on September 10 — and the other debates will be canceled. Both campaigns are running what can only be described as base-turnout-maximization election strategies. And both campaigns will come out of that debate feeling like their candidate has done enough to motivate their base without suffering any below-the-waterline damage. Kamala Harris will lean into her “Excuse me, I’m talking now” shtick, and Donald Trump will be a boor. Few Americans will find anything that happens or is said very edifying. But Trump will score some points on Harris’s border policies, and Harris will be able to say that she “stood up” to Trump. After that, both sides will return to trying to energize their own voters into swamping the polls in November.
Assessment: I’ll mark myself as “correct” on this one. After the Trump–Harris debate on September 10, the campaigns canceled any plans for further debates. I happen to think that this was a mistake, especially for Harris, who benefited from the first debate and has still, amazingly, failed to fully articulate a rationale for her presidency. What’s clear is that both camps have come to believe that the massive audiences and high-stakes exposure of a presidential debate could only redound to the detriment of their undisciplined and vapid candidates.
Prediction #2: Republicans will win the Senate, but lose their House majority. Republicans need to net two seats to win the Senate. The West Virginia seat held by retiring senator Joe Manchin is a GOP lock. The rest of the map heavily favors Republicans, but they will only pick up one additional seat: Jon Tester’s Montana seat. Vulnerable Democratic incumbents in Ohio (Sherrod Brown) and Nevada (Jacky Rosen) hold on and survive in what should have been very winnable races. But the razor-thin Republican House majority disintegrates as the 2022 midterm tide recedes. Notably, Republicans will struggle to hold on to four seats in New York State that they won in ’22 that lean Democratic.
Assessment: With the West Virginia and Montana Senate races trending heavily towards the Republican challengers, I’d be shocked if the GOP fails to win a majority. If Trump wins big and sweeps the Midwestern “blue wall” states, the Republicans could even approach 53 or 54 senators.
But given my view that Trump will end up winning the presidential race (see below), I tend to think Republicans will maintain their House majority. And, even if Harris manages to nip Trump in the blue-wall states and win the election, Trump may run just well enough in noncompetitive presidential states such as New York and California that Republicans might hold on to competitive House districts in those states.
I think I’m only going to be half-right here.
Prediction #3: The October surprise will be a Biden health scare — and Kamala Harris will become president. Some in the chattering classes are predicting that Democrats will force Biden to resign late in the race in order to give a stumbling Kamala Harris a boost and the bright glow of incumbency. I don’t think that’s going to happen because I don’t think the Democrats can force Joe Biden to give up the presidency. But a major health event could force Joe Biden out of the White House whether he likes it or not. Buckle up. Americans will have a chance at three presidents in a four-month period.
Assessment: By end of summer, I simply could not believe that Joe Biden — who had spent much of the last several years declining, and most of 2024 rapidly declining, in front of our eyes — would last through the end of his term.
It seems, however, that by essentially putting the sitting president of the United States out to pasture, the decision-makers around the president (i.e., Dr. Jill) will manage to limp to January on the back of a little-seen and little-heard Joe Biden.
Prediction #4: Kamala Harris will win the election comfortably. American voters have been telling both political parties for two years that they prefer different choices than Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The Democrats ended up giving them one. Yes, Kamala Harris has been shown consistently to be a lightweight on the national stage. Her policies, such as they are, are those of a California progressive. She has no answers for the issues that are hurting the American middle class: inflation, unchecked immigration, the difficulties in forming and growing families, and the coarsening of our national culture. But she’s nearly 20 years younger than Trump and can be hyped as the “change candidate” running against a quasi-incumbent in Trump. In a year in which almost any Republican should have been able to prosecute the case against Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, the Republican Party chose a compromised and over-the-hill 78-year-old Donald Trump. We will all end up paying the price.
Assessment: As I wrote late last week, I now think Trump is going to win. It’s the vibes. It’s the polls. It’s the early-voting margins in the states. And, most importantly, in my view, it’s the trend lines.
Can Kamala Harris still win?
Yes. I think Trump is the favorite. I think he’s going to win. But anyone telling you that Harris has no chance is telling you more than they could possibly know. A Harris win would be no less likely than was the victory that Trump achieved in 2016. And if the polls miss in the Democrats’ favor as much as they did just two years ago in the 2022 midterms, when the “red tsunami” failed to materialize, we could all be looking at President Kamala come January.
We’ll all know for sure next week . . .