On Tuesday, the Society of Family Planning’s #WeCount project released updated abortion estimates up to June 2024. They found that abortion numbers continue to increase. Their estimates indicate that thus far in 2024 the number of abortions has increased by approximately 12 percent. They also found that, owing to women obtaining abortions via telehealth and to women obtaining abortions in other states, abortion numbers in states with strong pro-life laws have remained largely unchanged since the Dobbs decision. This report has been covered by a number of mainstream media outlets including the New York Times, the Hill, and the Detroit News.
Unsurprisingly, there is much less here than meets the eye. The data taken at face value show that, when the first six months of 2023 are compared to the first six months of 2020, abortions increased by nearly 4 percent in twelve states that enacted abortion bans. However, between 2020 and 2023, the overall number of abortions increased by over 13 percent nationwide. The fact there has been a much slower growth in the incidence of abortion in states with strong pro-life laws is evidence that these protective laws are having an impact.
More importantly, there at least two good reasons to be skeptical of the #WeCount data. First, some of the state-level estimates make little sense. When the first six months of 2020 are compared with the first six months of 2023, they show that abortions increased by over 56 percent in West Virginia. They also show that abortions went up by over 37 percent in Tennessee. However, given that both West Virginia and Tennessee effectively banned abortion after the Dobbs decision, such a dramatic increase in abortions seems very unlikely.
Second #WeCount data indicate that in 2024 over 19 percent of abortions took place via telehealth. However, simply because abortion pills were ordered remotely does not mean an abortion took place. Some women may have changed their minds. Some women might have ordered abortion pills for future use. Slate even ran an article this week about how a record number of women who are not pregnant are ordering chemical-abortion pills just in case they need them in the future. This raises serious questions about the accuracy of #WeCount’s data.
A much better way to gauge the impact of recently enacted pro-life laws is to analyze birth data. Indeed, birth data provides powerful evidence that recently enacted pro-life laws are saving thousands of lives. Three separate studies analyzing Texas birth data all found that the Texas Heartbeat Act, which took effect in September 2021, saved over 1,000 lives every month. In fact, Texas had the largest percentage of birth increase of any state in 2022, in large part because it was the first state to enforce a strong pro-life law. Another study compared birth trends in states that enacted strong pro-life laws post-Dobbs with birth trends in states with permissive abortion policies. It found that the newly enacted pro-life laws saved over 32,000 lives in the first six months of 2023 alone.
This latest #WeCount report is the latest attempt by pro-abortion researchers and their allies in the mainstream media to argue that pro-life laws are an ineffective strategy for preventing abortions. However, in reality there is a substantial body of research showing that the incidence of abortion is sensitive to its legal status. Prior to Dobbs, a substantial body of academic research found that incremental pro-laws reduced abortion rates. Post-Dobbs birth data from states that have enacted pro-life laws persuasively shows that these laws are shaving thousands of lives. Given that, pro-lifers should use the opportunity presented by Dobbs and continue to enact strong, protective pro-life laws wherever possible.