Peter Keating argues in The New Republic that Giuliani and Obama are looking for votes in the wrong places.
In the most recent polls conducted by Survey USA, Hillary Clinton is crushing Giuliani by 22 points in New York and 17 points in California. Even in New Jersey, there’s really no hope for Rudy. Jersey Democrats have nominated a parade of dispiriting candidates for statewide office in recent years. . . . They all won going away. New Jersey, like Illinois, just isn’t competitive.
Keating is less persuasive on Giuliani’s upside:
His best chance for picking up a Democratic state is probably Wisconsin, which has a sizable number of ethnic Catholics, which John Kerry carried by less than 0.4 percentage points, and where Rudy might not overexpose himself by Election Day.
Not sure Giuliani’s Catholicism, or vestigial Catholicism, would be a great boon. And wouldn’t Wisconsin be one of the best shots for a pickup by any Republican? But Keating is, I think, right in his description of the two voter groups who are up for grabs this time. (Read the piece.)