Multiple polls have been recently conducted about upcoming state-level ballot propositions that would place legal abortion in state constitutions. Most of these polls have shown that these abortion ballot questions are leading by substantial margins. In particular, there have been polls from Florida, Arizona, Missouri, and South Dakota. Mainstream-media pundits have expressed confidence that these ballot propositions will succeed and will be a boon to President Biden and other Democrats running for office.
However, a closer look at the polling results reveals a different story. When evaluating ballot propositions months before the election, the key metric is not the lead but the level of support. Indeed, a substantial body of polling from abortion ballot propositions in Michigan in 2022 and Ohio in 2023 found that the level of opposition increased during the course of the campaign but that the level of support remained about the same. Nearly every poll conducted in Ohio and Michigan showed that between 55 and 60 percent of voters planned on voting for a proposition that would place legal abortion in the state constitution. That accurately predicted what happened on Election Day.
When the recent polling results are analyzed in that context, a different picture emerges. An average of six statewide polls shows that about 56 percent of Florida voters plan to vote for Amendment 4, which would place legal abortion in Florida’s state constitution. That is four percentage points short of the 60 percent threshold needed for passage in the Sunshine State. Similarly, recent polling shows 53 percent of South Dakota voters and 44 percent of Missouri voters plan to vote for abortion ballot propositions in their respective states. Pro-life victories are within reach in the Show-Me State and the Mount Rushmore State.
It is no secret that pro-lifers have struggled in statewide direct-democracy elections since the Dobbs decision. However, the political terrain in 2024 might be favorable to pro-lifers. Supporters of legal abortion are trying to place abortion on the ballot in such conservative states as Missouri, South Dakota, and Arkansas. Furthermore, the presence of Donald Trump on the ballot will doubtless boost turnout among Republicans and conservatives, bolstering pro-life efforts. Defeating these state-level abortion ballot questions will doubtless require a considerable investment of resources from the pro-life movement. However, pro-life prospects are better than what many media outlets are reporting.