On Monday, the journal JAMA Pediatrics published a research letter analyzing recent trends in the infant mortality rate. The researchers analyzed monthly infant-mortality-rate data from the CDC between 2018 and 2023. Using a sophisticated statistical model, they purportedly found an increase in the infant mortality rate after the summer of 2022. Unsurprisingly, the authors were quick to blame this increase on the Dobbs decision. This study was quickly and uncritically covered by a number of mainstream media outlets including CNN, Salon, the Los Angeles Times, and U.S. News and World Report.
Not surprisingly, there is much less here than meets the eye. The authors report a 7 percent increase in the infant mortality rate after Dobbs. However, other data released by the CDC tell a different story. There is some evidence of a slight increase in infant mortality in 2022. However, CDC data indicate that between the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, the U.S. infant mortality rate actually decreased by 2.4 percent. In short, there has not been a consistent upward trend in infant mortality post-Dobbs.
Furthermore, this JAMA Pediatrics study only considers national infant-mortality-rate data. It does not consider state-level data. As such, it fails to present any evidence that infant mortality rates increased faster in states that enacted strong pro-life laws after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision.
The study does provide somewhat stronger statistical evidence that mortality among infants with congenital anomalies increased post-Dobbs. However, newly enacted pro-life laws are not causing an increase in congenital conditions. Instead, some pro-life laws are preventing unborn children from being aborted because of their medical condition. Many children in these circumstances were tragically dying before Dobbs. However, since they were aborted, they were not counted as infant deaths.
Since Dobbs, the mainstream media have worked overtime to find evidence of negative public-health trends. However, they have not found much. Last month, the media touted a study by the Gender Equity Policy Institute citing a large recent increase in the Texas maternal mortality rate. However, the actual data showed a 35 percent decrease in maternal mortality in 2022, the year when the strongest pro-life laws were in effect in the Lone Star State. Overall, a good body of data from countries like Poland, Ireland, and Chile shows that pro-life laws are consistent with good public-health outcomes. As always, pro-lifers would do well to stay the course.