Kevin McCarthy Elected Speaker in Name Only

Kevin McCarthy did it. It was not easy or pretty, and he had many doubters along the way — I suggested he consider dropping out after getting rejected for the eighth time — but he stuck it out until 15 ballots. And now, he is House speaker Kevin McCarthy.

This is a job that McCarthy has been dutifully working toward for over a decade, repositioning himself as Republicans drifted from the Tea Party to MAGA. He had to drop his bid in 2015, but going into the November midterms it seemed that nothing could stop him from reaching his goal this time. Instead, he ended up facing the longest race for speaker since before the Civil War. Even Friday night, when it seemed like he had locked up the votes to triumph on the 14th ballot, the rug was pulled out from under him one more time, and he was forced into a dramatic House floor confrontation with his primary antagonist, Representative Matt Gaetz. 

But he finally made it. Sort of. 

For while McCarthy has secured the speakership in title, he finds himself in an incredibly weak position, chastened by the protracted battle to gain power — and the compromises it required along the way.

To be clear, from the perspective of conservatives, a weakening of the speaker position could be a great development — especially in the long-term. The scandalous $1.7 trillion omnibus package was an example of what happens when the normal procedures are gutted, debate foreclosed, and committees bypassed, while congressional leadership slaps together a massive bill at the end of the year and demands members vote for it just before Christmas or risk all sorts of calamities. 

But even if there may be benefits to McCarthy being on a short leash, it’s worth pointing out how short of a leash it really is. He is a speaker in name only. 

McCarthy’s problems began on Election Night, when it became clear that the much predicted “red wave” would never materialize. Instead of having a comfortable margin to play with as Republican leader, he finds himself with a narrow majority in which any five Republicans can block anything he wants to accomplish (assuming he can’t count on Democrats for votes). And anything he does manage to wrestle through the House will just die in the Democratic-controlled Senate anyway. 

The first test of the problems of McCarthy’s narrow majority was the just-concluded fight to become speaker, in which a group of about 20 Republicans withheld their votes until he made significant concessions that will limit his power as speaker and pave the wave for many future confrontations. 

While some of the details are still coming out, he agreed to give Freedom Caucus members more power within the Rules Committee, which sets the parameters for passing legislation. He also acceded to a change to House rules that would allow any single member of Congress to call a vote to remove him from power. Even if it is never deployed, the fear of being ousted at any time will act as a check on him. 

Even with these concessions and more, McCarthy didn’t win the confidence of a solid majority of 218 House members. Instead, six holdouts ended up voting “present” so that he was able to become speaker with 216 votes.

The real test of his power will come later this year, when he faces the looming fight over raising the debt ceiling. McCarthy has committed to push for concessions from Democrats in order to agree to raise the debt ceiling. But Democrats are still stewing over the 2011 debt-ceiling fight and now view it as a massive mistake that Barack Obama negotiated with Republicans instead of holding firm and treating hiking the debt limit as just a part of responsible governance. Thus, the Democratic-controlled Senate is unlikely to budge. 

Both sides are dug into their positions, and yet also convinced that the other side will blink first. This is going to put McCarthy in the position of either sticking with his caucus and being willing to risk a meltdown of financial markets, or voting with Democrats to hike the debt ceiling, which will put his speakership in peril given that any one member can subject him to a vote of “no confidence.”

McCarthy could look back at this week as the easy part.