John Kerry has an op-ed in the NYT today, headlined “Two Deadlines and an Exit.” (Is that meant to be a play on “Two Weddings and a Funeral”?)
For what it’s worth here are some of his key points and some responses:
“As our generals have said, the war cannot be won militarily. It must be won politically.”
Some generals may have said that, but it’s wrong. It’s what is said by generals who love to train and parade and buy expensive weapons systems and then retire to cushy jobs at Lockheed. The fact is we have to win both militarily and politically.
We have to learn to fight and win a war against terrorist and insurgent groups. If we have a military that can’t win this kind of war, then Iraq will be only the first of many defeats–Afghanistan, Jordan and Pakistan will soon follow. What would prevent that?
If we have a military that can’t fight and win a war such as this, then we have a military that is close to useless, because this is what war is going to look like in the 21st century. We’re not going to have a chance to fight Rommel in the desert again. We’re not going to send tanks into Poland.
“Now we must set another deadline to extricate our troops and get Iraq up on its own two feet.”
If we set a deadline, we’re essentially saying to al Qaeda and Saddam loyalists in Iraq: “Here’s when we’ll be out of your way. Plan on it.” Is that really a smart idea?
“In a neutral setting, Iraqis, working with our allies, the Arab League and the United Nations …”
The Arab League is an ally? Hardly. There is not a single liberal democracy in the Arab League. Its members would not be eager to admit Iraq as the first. There is not a single Shia-dominated government in the Arab League. Its members are not eager to admit Iraq as the first. As for the UN being our ally, that’s too silly to require comment.
“An exit from Iraq will also strengthen our hand in dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat and allow us to repair the damage of repeated deployments, which flag officers believe has strained military readiness and morale.”
How will it strengthen our hand with Iran if they see that we lack resolve in Iraq? And is military morale likely to be strengthened or weakened by a withdrawal that is really a defeat – which would be the case if we were to withdraw from Iraq, leaving a viable al Qaeda organization behind? (Perhaps Mr. Kerry can recall the impact on military morale of America’s withdrawal from Vietnam.) As for readiness, that is an odd concept in this context. What are we supposed to be getting ready for if not fighting al-Qaeda wherever we can fight it?
One more thought:
“The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it, and if one finds the prospect of a long war intolerable, it is natural to disbelieve in the possibility of victory.”
– George Orwell, 1/01/1946