In the Trump era, it has proven exceptionally difficult to win a Senate race if your state is voting for the other party in the presidential race. In 2016 and 2020, there were 69 Senate races. Only one time — Susan Collins in 2020 — did a Republican win while the Democratic candidate was winning the presidential vote in the state, and even that one comes with a caveat, as Trump won one electoral vote in Maine last cycle.
This is an extremely ominous indicator for Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana.
In Ohio, Trump leads in the RealClearPolitics average by eight percentage points and the 538 average by 8.9 percentage points.
In Montana, Trump leads in the RealClearPolitics average by 17.5 percentage points, and the 538 average by 16.6 percentage points.
Brown and Tester need to figure out a way to win while Harris is losing their states by a wide margin.
This is one of the reasons I’m skeptical of the Democratic happy talk about the Senate races in Nebraska, Texas, and Florida. Trump is on pace to win Nebraska statewide by double digits, to win Texas by about 6.4 percentage points, and to win Florida by about five percentage points. Could we see some ticket-splitting in those states? Sure. Will we see a Democratic Senate candidate running tens of thousands of votes, or even hundreds of thousands of votes, ahead of Harris? Very tough to envision.
Right now, in the presidential race, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan look like toss-ups. If Trump can win any or all of them, that might be really good news for Eric Hovde, Dave McCormick, and Mike Rogers.