After weeks of build up as to what the response would be to Iran’s October 1 ballistic missile attack, Israel launched a set of precision strikes against Iranian military targets meant to send a message without provoking a major response from Iran.
While this is being portrayed as a more prudent approach that makes a regional war less likely, Israel’s show of restraint is a big risk.
Iran is in a long war against Israel which it seeks to destroy as part of a broader goal to weaken the United States. That war has been mostly fought through its terrorist proxies as it works toward the development of nuclear weapons.
Ever since Hamas launched the October 7th attacks from the south, Israel has been bombarded by projectiles from Hezbollah in the north, while Iran’s other proxy, the Houthis, has also periodically joined the campaign from Yemen.
What changed this year is that in April and earlier this month, Iran attacked Israel directly from its own soil, firing hundreds of ballistic missiles toward major Israeli population centers. While the threats posed by Hamas and Hezbollah are not existential to Israel, the possibility of those ballistic missiles being armed with nuclear material one day would be.
It is a risk that Israel cannot afford, and yet one that it continues to take.
Israel had a golden opportunity to deal a serious blow to Iran – crippling its economy by attacking oil sites and/or degrading its nuclear program. Not only did Israel have a clear justification for hitting Iran hard, but right now Hamas and Hezbollah are severely degraded and in less position to retaliate on behalf of their sponsor.
President Biden warned Israel against such larger attacks, pressuring the government both publicly and behind the scenes. Pro-Iran officials in the administration even leaked Israeli planning documents.
Opposition of the Biden administration made it not only diplomatically difficult to go ahead with a more punishing blow to Iran, but by many accounts, Israel would need access to more powerful American bunker busters to hit the most deeply buried Iranian nuclear facilities.
It would be going too far to say that the Israeli response served no purpose. Israel sent over 100 aircraft into Iran and they hit targets for hours – first, against anti-aircraft sites, then against ballistic missile and drone production sites. The fact that Israel could operate so freely 1,000 miles away from its own territory, and strike at will, without having to fear the Iranian air defenses or worry about Hezbollah retaliation, no doubt put the Ayatollahs on notice.
That having been said, it’s hard to believe this response will deter Iranian leaders from launching future ballistic missile assaults on Israel or dissuade them from pursuing nuclear weapons.