I give Trump higher odds of winning a general election than some of my colleagues, but the idea that he’s leading Biden by 5 is inherently absurd.
Here’s a good thread dismantling the Harvard-Harris poll that has Trump with that comfortable lead:
To be blunt: bad polling is distorting the understanding of 2024
The worst offender is perhaps Mark Penn’s (Team Hillary) Harvard-Harris poll that’s often cited by the media bc of the "Harvard" brand.
1) The polls are trash. A thread…
 pic.twitter.com/n0W0kgWTU9— Chris Wilson (@WilsonWPA) July 26, 2023