For all the rhetoric, voters seem to be proceeding as if nothing much matters.
I’m told that this is now a “vibes” election, so let me offer up a “vibes”-based take of my own that I’m pretty sure everyone of all stripes will profoundly dislike: Despite the doomsday rhetoric from both sides of the aisle, voters don’t seem to particularly care about the coming contest, or even to consider the problems that the country faces to be important enough to shake them out of their long-standing preference for shallow personality contests.
I do not mean by this that the United States faces no problems, or that the public is not aware of the issues that obtain. I merely mean that those problems do not seem to be dire enough for the average person to have escaped their usual habits or to have considered politics more than they usually would. Americans quite clearly do not believe that Donald Trump is likely to become a dictator, that he is determined to end Social Security, or that he is plotting some dastardly reengineering of society with the help of Project 2025. Nor do they look back on his presidency as a bad time. Likewise, while they might be irritated by some of its failures, they are evidently not angry enough with the Biden-Harris administration’s record to be in any great rush to punish Harris over it.
The thing is: When Americans are upset, you can tell. They engage, and things change as a result. This happened in 2008, after the financial crash, and again in 2010, after the unheeded backlash to Obamacare. It happened in 2020 during Covid. It happened in 1980, when inflation was rampant. It happened in 1974 after Watergate. It happened in 1932, when Herbert Hoover seemed unable to address the Depression. It happened in 1920, in response to the excesses of the Wilson administration. It happens when candidates scare the public, as Barry Goldwater did in 1964, and when candidates enthrall the public, as Ronald Reagan did in 1984. The rest of the time? They trundle along indifferently, and the polls show a 50–50-ish fight.
To my eyes, this seems to be what’s happening now. Certainly, people are bothered by inflation and the border and interest rates and the state of the world. It’s been a tough time, and I don’t wish to imply otherwise. I just can’t help but notice that those same people don’t seem to be sufficiently bothered by it all to alter their usual behavior. As of now, we are heading toward a 50–50 election in a 50–50 country. For all his flaws, Donald Trump is doing better now than he did at the same point in 2016 and 2020; for all her flaws, Kamala Harris is being treated as a Generic Democrat, and an outsider to boot. Hell, nobody seems to care too much that we don’t have a functioning president. This baffles many people, including me. But there it is.
That word is a good one: generic. This is a Generic Election. Republicans are arguing Republican things; Democrats are arguing Democrat things; independents are flitting around, as is their wont. I’ve been critical of Trump for being unable to stay on message and of Harris for not having an agenda, but, while I do think these things matter, it is also the case that, thus far at least, this election isn’t actually about anything. I know what the two parties think it should be about. But it’s not about that, is it? It’s about . . . nothing. When things get truly bad — when people are truly engaged — that simply isn’t possible. The public decides what the election is about, and the candidates follow along.
Which is all to say that, despite all of the Most Important Election Ever and Last Chance! rhetoric that is on offer, and despite the trials and tribulations of the last eight or so years, I don’t see much evidence that the American people regard November as anything other than a typical contest between the typical parties on the typical issues. That “vibe” you’re all looking for? It’s not panic. It’s boredom.