The Corner

Politics & Policy

If McCarthy Loses, Trump Does Too

Left: Then-president Donald Trump at the White House in 2020. Right: Then-House minority leader Kevin McCarthy on Capitol Hill in August 2021. (Leah Millis, Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

Since, in late 2022, he made it clear that he was running for president once again, Donald Trump has repeatedly thrown acid onto his own prospects. Among the mistakes that Trump has made are proposing candidates who did disastrously in last year’s midterms, choosing to have dinner with the white supremacist Nick Fuentes, proposing the dismantling of the U.S. Constitution to address what he incorrectly believes was the stolen election of 2020, and, this week, blaming pro-lifers for the GOP’s poor electoral performances in 2022.

Now, Trump is insisting that the 20 holdouts within the GOP’s House conference must drop their opposition to Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House, and move on:

Former President Trump called on House Republicans to unite behind House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) for the Speakership, announcing early Wednesday that he is standing by McCarthy despite opposition from some hard-line members of the party.

Trump said in a Truth Social post that “some really good conversations” were held Tuesday night, and all House Republicans should vote for McCarthy, “close the deal” and “take the victory.”

“REPUBLICANS, DO NOT TURN A GREAT TRIUMPH INTO A GIANT & EMBARRASSING DEFEAT. IT’S TIME TO CELEBRATE, YOU DESERVE IT. Kevin McCarthy will do a good job, and maybe even a GREAT JOB – JUST WATCH!” he said.

The obvious question here is: what if they don’t? What if those holdouts — or a large portion of them — maintain their opposition, despite Trump’s entreaties?

In my estimation, such a development would harm Trump in two ways. First, it would show that Trump-sycophants such as Matt Gaetz are no longer willing to do what their hero demands — even if, as a general matter, they express support for him. Second, it would put Trump on the side of the “establishment” (which he is!) against the rebels. Whether they are right or they are wrong, Kevin McCarthy’s most vocal opponents believe themselves to be engaged in a grand plan to drain the swamp. If Donald Trump lines up against them, and loses, it will tell us something important about his standing in the party and beyond.

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