IDF Getting Antsy about Gaza Ground-Invasion Delay, as Biden Administration Pressures Israel to Wait

The IDF is getting antsy that further delaying the ground invasion of Gaza could hinder its goal of destroying Hamas, while the Biden administration is putting pressure on Israel to wait even longer for ongoing hostage negotiations to play out.

A ground invasion of Gaza has been reported as “imminent” for weeks following the October 7 massacre of Israeli civilians, leading to swirling speculation about what the hold-up was; but a clearer picture is starting to emerge.

The Times of Israel on Monday reported that

the Israel Defense Forces believes that in order to attain the objectives of the war against Hamas, laid out by government officials, the military must begin its ground offensive in the Gaza Strip sooner rather than later. . . .

After 16 days of airstrikes, the IDF has told the government that it is fully prepared for a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, and believes it can achieve the goals set out for it, even at the risk of heavy casualties to soldiers, and amid repeated attacks by Hezbollah in the north, The Times of Israel learned.

The report also notes that “the forces stationed by the border can only remain in a heightened state of readiness for so long.”

Meanwhile, the New York Times is reporting that U.S. officials are working behind the scenes to pressure Israel — not to call off the operation, but to hold off for as long as possible:

The Biden administration has advised Israel to delay a ground invasion of Gaza, hoping to buy time for hostage negotiations and to allow more humanitarian aid to reach Palestinians in the sealed-off enclave, according to several U.S. officials.

American officials also want more time to prepare for attacks on U.S. interests in the region from Iran-backed groups, which officials said are likely to intensify once Israel moves its forces fully into Gaza.

This would be consistent with the overall posture that Axios has reported: “President Biden is taking a dual-track approach to the Gaza crisis — standing staunchly beside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in public while trying to hold him back in private.”

The problem right now is that Hamas has over 200 hostages. Signaling that the ground invasion will happen once hostages are released gives Hamas every incentive to drag out the talks and maybe release a few hostages here and there to show evidence that the talks are bearing fruit.

Hamas knows that having hostages will complicate Israeli battle plans, so there’s no reason to believe that the terrorist group would release them all, which would only allow Israel a freer hand during any invasion.

If there is a legitimate interest in shoring up U.S. defenses against Iranian attacks on American positions in the region, that is a different factor. But it would also be disjointed from the public posture of Biden and administration officials, which is allergic to even mentioning the word “Iran.”

There are a few other internal Israeli factors to watch. One is signs of tension between the political and military leaders over the delay. Aryeh Deri, a leader of the religious Shas party who is an observer to the war cabinet, claimed it wasn’t a matter of politicians delaying the invasion, but a matter of the IDF getting its ducks in a row: “You can’t just go in at a moment’s notice. I can’t divulge all the details, but it’s not like the army is ready and the political side isn’t letting it [invade].”

Additionally, despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s aggressive persona and fiery rhetoric, he has actually been traditionally risk averse. There’s a reason why he avoided any actions to truly destroy Hamas in the past, instead attempting to keep the terrorist group in check by periodically degrading its military capability with lower-risk actions. So, while Biden may be pressuring Netanyahu to delay giving the green light, I suspect that there is some underlying Bibi indecision over the timing of the invasion as well.